Estimating the urban heat-related mortality burden due to greenness: a global modelling study

作者：Yao Wu, Bo Wen, Tingting Ye, Wenzhong Huang, Yanming Liu, Antonio Gasparrini, Francesco Sera, Shilu Tong, Éric Lavigne, Dominic Royé, Souzana Achilleos, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Ariana Zeka, Francesca de’Donato, Susana Pereira Silva, Joana Madureira, Malcolm Mistry, Ben Armstrong, Michelle L. Bell, Joel Schwartz, Yuming Guo, Shanshan Li · 发表于：The Lancet Planetary Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s2542-5196(25)00062-2 · 被引用次数：31 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Thermoregulation and physiological responses、Air Quality and Health Impacts

BACKGROUND: Heat exposure poses a substantial public health threat. Increasing greenness has been suggested as a mitigation strategy due to its cooling effect and potential to modify the heat-mortality association. This study aimed to comprehensively estimate the effects of increased greenness on heat-related deaths. METHODS: We applied a multistage meta-analytical approach to estimate the potential reduction in global heat-related deaths by increasing greenness in the warm season in 2000-19 in 11 534 urban areas. We used the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to indicate greenness and a random forest model to predict daily temperatures in counterfactual EVI scenarios. In the factual EVI scenarios, daily mortality and weather variables from 830 locations in 53 countries were extracted from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network and used to assess heat-mortality associations. These associations were then extrapolated to each urban area under both factual and counterfactual EVI scenarios based on meta-regression models. FINDINGS: We estimated that EVI increased by 10% would decrease the global population-weighted warm-season mean temperature by 0·08°C, EVI increased by 20% would decrease temperature by 0·14°C, and EVI increased by 30% would decrease temperature by 0·19°C. In the factual scenario, 3 153 225 (2·48%) of 127 179 341 total deaths could be attributed to heat exposure. The attributable fraction of heat-related deaths (as a fraction of total deaths) i...