Trends in burden and mortality of congenital birth defects in G20 countries (1990–2021) and predictions for 2022–2040

作者：Xiangwen Li, Pengfei Qu, Pu Yan, Yule Kou, Jian Song, Di Wu, Jiayi Wang, Siyu Pan, Yufei Liu, Xinrui Li, Rongqiang Zhang · 发表于：BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12884-025-07617-w · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Folate and B Vitamins Research、Congenital Heart Disease Studies、Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare

OBJECTIVES: Congenital birth defects (CBDs) rank among the top five causes of death in children under the age of five. Despite their significant impact, studies on the burden of CBDs in G20 countries remain limited. This study sought to examine the temporal trends in the disease burden and mortality rates of CBDs across G20 countries from 1990 to 2021, identify potential risk factors contributing to these trends, and project the disease burden and mortality rates for the period 2022-2040. METHOD: Data for this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 and GBD 2019 databases. We analyzed trends in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates for CBDs in G20 countries using absolute numbers, all-age rates, age-standardized rates (ASR), annual percent change (APC), and average annual percent change (AAPC). Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to identify significant periods of change in ASR. Spearman correlation analysis with locally weighted regression, supplemented by 10,000 bootstrap iterations for robustness validation was used to examine the associations between the socio-demographic index (SDI), healthcare access and quality (HAQ) index, Summary exposure value (SEV) of risk factor exposure, and ASR. Decomposition analysis was performed to investigate the driving factors behind changes in CBDs. Finally, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to project DALYs and mortality rates for the period 2022-2040. RESULTS: Fro...