Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

作者：John Bistline, Matthew Binsted, Geoffrey J. Blanford, Gale Boyd, Morgan Browning, Yongxia Cai, Jae Edmonds, Allen A. Fawcett, Jay Fuhrman, Ruying Gao, Chioke Harris, Christopher Hoehne, Gokul Iyer, Jeremiah X. Johnson, P. Özge Kaplan, Daniel H. Loughlin, Megan Mahajan, Trieu Mai, James McFarland, Haewon McJeon, Marc Melaina, Seyed Shahabeddin Mousavi, Matteo Muratori, Robbie Orvis, Amogh Prabhu, Charles Rossmann, Ronald D. Sands, Luis Sarmiento, Sharon Showalter, Aditya Sinha, Emma Starke, Eric Stewart, Kathleen Vaillancourt, John P. Weyant, Frances Wood, Mei Yuan · 发表于：Energy and Climate Change · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100191 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Climate Change Policy and Economics、Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. We investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage , advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carb...