Long-term trends and future projections of liver cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2030

作者：Zhouwei Zhan, Bijuan Chen, Rui Huang, Wei Lin, S. Lan, Xintong Yao, Shuqi Huang, Wenlong Lin, Shaohua Xu, Sijing Zhou, Jiami Yu, Xiaojie Wang, Xiaoyan Lin, Zengqing Guo · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-025-96615-1 · 被引用次数：27 · 研究领域：Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment、Hepatitis B Virus Studies、Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection

Liver cancer remains a significant public health issue in China, exhibiting high incidence, mortality, and burden. Understanding its temporal trends and projections is essential for designing targeted prevention and treatment strategies. This study analyzes long-term trends in liver cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and burden from 1990 to 2021, assessing age, period, and cohort effects, and projecting future trends. Data on liver cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) were analyzed from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis, age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, and BAPC modeling were applied to examine trends and project future trends. Decomposition analysis examined contributions of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth. The study also compared China's liver cancer trends with global data. From 1990 to 2021, China experienced a decrease in age-standardized rates for liver cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and burden. Notably, Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) exhibited a decline after 2016, with a significant reduction in the male population. In 2021, there were 196,637 new cases of liver cancer in China, with a higher burden in males. ASIR were 14.34 per 100,000 for males and 4.89 per 100,000 for females. Mortality also followed a declining trend, with a notable decrease in age-standardized mortality rates. The age-standardized ...