Impact of climate change on arsenic concentrations in paddy rice and the associated dietary health risks in Asia: an experimental and modelling study

作者：Dongming Wang, Brent F. Kim, Keeve E. Nachman, Andrea A. Chiger, Julie B. Herbstman, Irakli Loladze, Fang‐Jie Zhao, Chuan Chen, Axiang Gao, Yong‐Guan Zhu, Fangbai Li, Ren Fang Shen, Xiaoyuan Yan, Jiabao Zhang, Chuang Cai, Lian Song, Min Shen, Chuanqi Ma, Xiong Yang, Wei Zhou, Yujun Wang, Haoye Tang, Yu Jiang, Chengqiang Ding, Wuxing Liu, Jianqiang Sun, Wei Zhou, Ana Navas-Acien, Chunwu Zhu, Lewis H. Ziska · 发表于：The Lancet Planetary Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s2542-5196(25)00055-5 · 被引用次数：28 · 研究领域：Arsenic contamination and mitigation、Heavy metals in environment、Plant Stress Responses and Tolerance

Background Rising global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and surface temperatures could negatively affect rice yields and nutritional quality; however, their effects on arsenic accumulation in paddy rice have not been assessed concurrently. We aimed to assess the impact of increases in CO 2 and temperature (individually and in combination) on arsenic concentrations in rice, characterise soil properties that might influence arsenic uptake, and model the associated risks of cancer and other health outcomes due to increased arsenic exposure. Methods For this modelling study we performed in-situ multi-varietal trials using Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment platforms with and without supplemental temperature to examine the bioaccumulation of arsenic in paddy rice and the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms from 2014 to 2023. We modelled dietary inorganic arsenic exposure and the associated risks of cancer and non-cancer health outcomes via rice consumption for seven of the leading rice-consuming countries in east and southeast Asia. Findings Concomitant increases in CO 2 and temperature resulted in a synergistic increase of inorganic arsenic in rice grain. The observed increase is likely to be related to changes in soil biogeochemistry that favoured reduced arsenic species. Modelled consumption of rice under these conditions resulted in projected increases in inorganic arsenic exposure and lifetime cancer and health risks for multiple Asian countries by 2050. Interpretat...