Trends of Alzheimer’s Disease and Other Dementias with Socioeconomic Insights: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis and Forecasts for 2046

作者：Yi Zeng, Huiqi Yang, Yongqiang Lai, Ying Bi, Changyu Sun, Huan Jiang, Xinwei Liu, Sai Xu, Ye Li, Jia Meng · 发表于：Neuroepidemiology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1159/000545885 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research、Intergenerational Family Dynamics and Caregiving

INTRODUCTION: The disease burden of dementia varies in different economic development regions. This study provides a comprehensive overview of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) trends across regions with varying socioeconomic statuses and forecasts global incidence rates from 2022 to 2046. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we utilized an age-period-cohort (APC) model to analyze annual changes in incidence and the risk factors associated with age, period, and birth cohort across different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. Additionally, a log-linear APC model was employed to project global trends in ADOD incidence from 2022 to 2046. RESULTS: Between 1992 and 2021, we estimated that the net drift of the incidence of ADOD is 0.03(95% CI: 0.01-0.04). High-middle SDI regions demonstrated the highest net drift (0.22, 95% CI: 0.18-0.26). At the country level, the net drift was highest in China, at 0.36 (95% CI: 0.32-0.40), and we found a global upward trend in the incidence of the disease in people aged 50-64 years, especially in regions with high SDI. By 2046, there will be 21.24 million cases of ADOD worldwide. The age-standardized incidence rate for all patients with ADOD will increase slowly and is projected to be 120.8 per 100,000 population by 2046. CONCLUSION: We found a steady increase in incidence worldwide, with the greatest increase in high-middle SDI regions. The incidence is declining in areas with high SDI, and higher levels o...