Social–Ecological Factors and Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs/Synergies in Vegetation Change Zones of Qilian Mountain National Park During 2000–2020

作者：Xiaoyuan Yang, Zhonghua Zhang, Huakun Zhou, Fanglin Liu, Hongyan Yu, Baowei Zhao, Xianying Wang, Honglin Li, Zhengchen Shi · 发表于：Remote Sensing · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.3390/rs17081402 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Environmental Changes in China、Ecology, Conservation, and Geographical Studies

An ecological restoration assessment aims to evaluate whether ecological restoration projects (ERPs) have achieved predefined ecological objectives, such as improving fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and enhancing ecosystem services (ESs), as well as to optimize restoration strategies based on assessment outcomes. Despite recent advancements, current studies still fall short of fully capturing the trade-offs among ESs and identifying the underlying drivers of different vegetation trends. To address these challenges, we applied the Theil–Sen method to delineate vegetation change zones in the Qilian Mountain National Park (QLMNP) between 2000 and 2020, employed bivariate Moran’s I statistics to analyze the trade-offs and synergies among four ESs within these zones, including carbon sequestration (CS), soil conservation (SC), water conservation (WC), and biodiversity maintenance (BIO), and utilized a spatial random forest (SRF) model to explore the main socio-ecological driving factors of vegetation trends and their spatial distribution. Our results revealed significant vegetation recovery in the QLMNP between 2000 and 2020, particularly in regions with initially low FVC. Positive trends in the CS, SC, and BIO highlighted the success of restoration efforts, primarily driven by land conversion to forests and increased precipitation. However, 8.82% of the QLMNP exhibited stagnation or degradation due to rising temperatures and overgrazing, leading to declines in the SC and BIO. N...