A reliability analysis method based on cross-entropy importance sampling for lateral safety assessment of misaligned autonomous truck platoons under crosswinds

作者：Jilong Chen, Feng Chen, Suiyang Zhao · 发表于：Accident Analysis & Prevention · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.aap.2025.108044 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design、Risk and Safety Analysis、Wind and Air Flow Studies

Autonomous truck platooning offers a range of advantages in freight transportation, including energy efficiency and operational effectiveness, and has garnered increasing attention. But traditional truck platoons, typically aligned in a straight line, can cause channelized damage to road surfaces due to the concentrated load over short durations. To enhance pavement sustainability, the concept of misaligned truck platoons has been explored, wherein trucks within the platoon intentionally drift laterally by varying amounts. Nevertheless, the misalignment introduces concerns regarding the lateral safety performance of the trucks. To investigate the lateral safety of misaligned autonomous truck platoons under crosswinds, this paper introduces an innovative and efficient approach. Using a three-truck platoon as an example, Cross-Entropy Importance Sampling (CE-IS) is utilized to estimate the lateral risk probability of misaligned truck platoons with a randomized distribution across multiple indicators, and the results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The results indicate that CE-IS significantly reduces computation time while maintaining high accuracy. This computational efficiency makes CE-IS particularly suitable for intelligent freight systems, where rapid and reliable risk assessment is critical for dynamic platoon coordination, real-time safety management, and optimization under uncertain conditions. Under a consistent in-lane lateral ...