The spatiotemporal ecology of Oropouche virus across Latin America: a multidisciplinary, laboratory-based, modelling study

作者：Carlo Fischer, Anna Frühauf, Lucia Inchauste, Murilo Henrique Anzolini Cassiano, Heriberto Arévalo Ramirez, Karine Barthélémy, Lissete Bautista Machicado, Fernando A. Bozza, Carlos Brites, Miguel M. Cabada, César A Cabezas Sánchez, Angie Cervantes Rodríguez, Xavier de Lamballerie, R Delgado, Edmilson Ferreira de Oliveira-Filho, Mathieu Domenech de Cellès, Carlos Franco-Muñoz, María Mendoza, Miladi Gatty Nogueira, Rosa-Margarita Gélvez-Ramírez, Manuel González, Eduardo Gotuzzo, Stephanie Kramer‐Schadt, Suvi Kuivanen, Katherine Laiton‐Donato, Anyela Lozano‐Parra, Edward Málaga‐Trillo, Dora Valencia Manos Alva, Dorothée Missé, Andrés Moreira‐Soto, Thiago Moreno L. Souza, Karen Mozo, Eduardo Martins Netto, Nadine Olk, Johanna Maribel Pachamora Diaz, Célia Pedroso Jorge, Ana Micsuco Pérez Astudillo, Marta Piche-Ovares, Stéphane Priet, Bladimiro Rincón‐Orozco, Juan José Romero Zúñiga, S Gómez Cisneros, Andreas Stöcker, Juan A. Ugalde, Luis Angel Villar Centeno, Moritz Wenzler‐Meya, Juan Carlos Zevallos, Jan Felix Drexler · 发表于：The Lancet Infectious Diseases · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s1473-3099(25)00110-0 · 被引用次数：31 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Viral Infections and Vectors、Vector-Borne Animal Diseases

BACKGROUND: Latin America has been experiencing an Oropouche virus (OROV) outbreak of unprecedented magnitude and spread since 2023-24 for unknown reasons. We aimed to identify risk predictors of and areas at risk for OROV transmission. METHODS: In this multidisciplinary, laboratory-based, modelling study, we retrospectively tested anonymised serum samples collected between 2001 and 2022 for studies on virus epidemiology and medical diagnostics in Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru with nucleoprotein-based commercial ELISAs for OROV-specific IgG and IgM antibodies. Serum samples positive for IgG from different ecological regions and sampling years were tested against Guaroa virus and two OROV glycoprotein reassortants (Iquitos virus and Madre de Dios virus) via plaque reduction neutralisation testing (PRNT) to validate IgG ELISA specificity and support antigenic cartography. Three OROV strains were included in the neutralisation testing, a Cuban OROV isolate from the 2023-24 outbreak, a contemporary Peruvian OROV isolate taken from a patient in 2020, and a historical OROV isolate from Brazil. We analysed the serological data alongside age, sex, cohort, and geographical residence data for the serum samples; reported OROV incidence data; and vector occurrence data to explore OROV transmission in ecologically different regions of Latin America. We used the MaxEnt machine learning methodology to spatially analyse and predict OROV infection risk across Latin ...