How virus migration and meteorological elements shape the seasonality of influenza a/H3N2: A case study in China

作者：Yilan Liao, Tong Zhao, Wei Du, Dayan Wang, Zhibin Peng, Shan Xue, Jianxing Yu, An Zhang, Hongyan Ren, Zhoupeng Ren, Ge Gao, Jinfeng Wang, Nils Chr. Stenseth · 发表于：One Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.onehlt.2025.101037 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Influenza Virus Research Studies、COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Viral Infections and Vectors

Recent global influenza resurgences, escalating to pandemics, emphasize the urgency for effective vaccinations. Despite their efficacy, vaccines offer limited protection against A/H3N2 variants. Thus, elucidating the spatial patterns and underlying drivers of A/H3N2 seasonality is critical for its management. However, the mechanisms governing this seasonality are not fully understood. The study conducted a collaborative and interdisciplinary analysis of influenza A/H3N2 epidemiology in China from 2012 to 2018, utilizing national influenza surveillance data, viral gene sequence data, and meteorological information. We initially examined the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza A/H3N2 across different temperate zones in China. Subsequently, we employed Bayesian "SkyGrid" reconstruction analysis to gain insights into the population dynamics of the influenza A/H3N2 virus within China's temperature zones. Additionally, we utilized generalized additive models (GAM) to assess the influence of meteorological factors on the seasonal prevalence of influenza A/H3N2. Our analysis of China's national influenza data revealed distinct seasonal patterns for A/H3N2: winter epidemics prevailed in temperate zones, while summer and autumn outbreaks occurred in subtropical and tropical areas. The seasonality of influenza A/H3N2 across China's diverse climatic zones is shaped by the interplay of virus migration and meteorological factors. Virus migration introduced new variant populations duri...