Global landscape of early-onset thyroid cancer: current burden, temporal trend and future projections on the basis of GLOBOCAN 2022

作者：Qianyun Jin, Jie Wu, Caiyun Huang, Jingjing Li, Yunmeng Zhang, Yuting Ji, Xiaomin Liu, Hongyuan Duan, Zhuowei Feng, Ya Liu, Yacong Zhang, Zhangyan Lyu, Lei Yang, Yubei Huang · 发表于：Journal of Global Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.7189/jogh.15.04113 · 被引用次数：19 · 研究领域：Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment、Thyroid Disorders and Treatments、Global Cancer Incidence and Screening

Background: With rapid social-economic development and widespread screening, the surge in incidence and overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer is more worrying among the young than the general population. This problem, however, still lacks adequate attention. Methods: We retrieved the original data of current, past and future burden of thyroid cancer from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022. We calculated the age-specific mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) by dividing age-specific mortality rates by incidence rates to quantify potential overdiagnosis, and used Segi's world standard population to calculate the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR). We then assessed the correlation between the human development index (HDI) and ASIR/ASMR using the linear correlation coefficient (r). Lastly, we characterised the temporal trend with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and project the early-onset thyroid cancer burdens to 2050. Results: Globally, there were an estimated 239 362 (ASIR = 4.00 per 100 000 population) cases and 2409 (ASMR = 0.04 per 100 000 population) deaths from thyroid cancer among individuals aged <40 years in 2022. Compared to its ranking as the 7th most common cancer in the overall population, thyroid cancer rose to become the 2nd most common cancer among individuals <40 years. Nearly 99% of thyroid cancer cases in individuals <40 years of age (MIR = 0.01) may be potentially overdiagnosed, whereas 34% of ca...