Global Trends in the Incidence, Prevalence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years of Leprosy from 1990 to 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

作者：Ke Zhang, Wei Zhang, Hongguang Lü · 发表于：Clinical Cosmetic and Investigational Dermatology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.2147/ccid.s508600 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Leprosy Research and Treatment、Parasites and Host Interactions、Syphilis Diagnosis and Treatment

Background: Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease, with approximately 200,000 new cases reported worldwide every year. Although there are numerous studies on the epidemiology of leprosy, the age, period, and cohort effects remain poorly understood. Objective: We present an overview of trends in leprosy incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years worldwide from 1990 to 2019 and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Data for analysis were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Methods: We described incident case, prevalent case, age-standardised incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years rates of leprosy from 1990 to 2019. Subsequently, we calculated overall annual percentage changes, annual percentage changes, and the relative risks of period and cohort using an age-period-cohort model. Results: ) demonstrated higher age-standardised incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years rate. The age-standardised incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years rate were significantly higher in males compared to females. Furthermore, the impact of age on leprosy increased with age, peaking at 25-35 years, with the highest prevalence rates observed in the 35-40 age group. Notably, the peak age of leprosy onset increases with SDI. Both the period and cohort effects on leprosy incidence and prevalence showed decreasing trend in middle SDI, low-middle SDI and low SDI countries in recent 30 years and birth cohort la...