Historical and future climate changes impact global solar photovoltaic power potential: Role of key meteorological variables

作者：Chang Liu, Lei Chen, Ke Li, Xipeng Jin, Xi Chen, Wenhao Qiao, Hong Liao · 发表于：Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100619 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics、Energy and Environment Impacts、Photovoltaic Systems and Sustainability

Renewable energy, especially solar power, is vital for mitigating global warming, while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential (PVpot). This study analyzes historical (1985–2014) and future (2015–2100) climate effects on PVpot, and quantifies contributions from changed radiation, temperature, and wind speed. Historically, global PVpot increased by 0.42 ‰, with notable rises in eastern China (+7.1 ‰) and southern Europe (+3.5 ‰). By the end of the century, increased radiation-induced PVpot (+1.27 ‰) offsets temperature-induced PVpot loss (−0.54 ‰) under SSP1-2.6, yielding a net PVpot increase (+0.74 ‰). Under SSP2-4.5, the temperature-induced PVpot decline (−1.50 ‰) drives the final PVpot reduction (−1.15 ‰). Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, combined radiation-induced (−1.94 ‰ and −1.99 ‰) and temperature-induced PVpot changes (−2.67 ‰ and −3.41 ‰) result in significant PVpot declines (−4.57 ‰ and −5.31 ‰). Regional analysis reveals that eastern China (+0.7‰ to +8.6 ‰), southern Europe (+0.3 ‰ to +2.5 ‰), and Northwest South America (+0.6 ‰ to +2.1 ‰) retain positive changes in future PVpot across all climate scenarios, which may be due to reduced aerosols and cloud cover, suggesting these areas can remain suitable for photovoltaic installations despite climate changes. In contrast, temperature-driven PVpot declines over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (−9.1 ‰ to −4.3 ‰) and northern Africa (−9.3 ‰ to −4.9 ‰) under future high-emission scenarios indicate that these his...