Global Climate Change Exacerbates Socioeconomic Drought Severity Across Vegetation Zones During 1901–2018

作者：Qianfeng Wang, Xiaofan Yang, Yanping Qu, Han Qiu, Yiping Wu, Junyu Qi, Hongquan Song, Yu Chen, Huaqiang Chu, Jingyu Zeng · 发表于：International Journal of Disaster Risk Science · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1007/s13753-025-00631-8 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Climate variability and models、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

Abstract Drought is one of the most complicated natural hazards and is among those that pose the greatest socioeconomic risks. How long-term climate change on a large scale affects different types of drought has not been well understood. This study aimed to enhance comprehension of this critical issue by integrating the run theory for drought identification, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and partial correlation attribution methods to analyze global drought dynamics in 1901–2018. Methodological innovations include: (1) a standardized drought severity metric enabling cross-typology comparisons; and (2) quantitative separation of precipitation and temperature impacts. Key findings reveal that socioeconomic drought severity exceeded meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts by 350.48%, 47.80%, and 14.40%, respectively. Temporal analysis of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) trends demonstrated intensification gradients: SPEI24 (− 0.09 slope/100 yr) > SPEI01 (− 0.088/100 yr) > SPEI06 (− 0.087/100 yr) > SPEI12 (− 0.086/100 yr). Climate drivers exhibited distinct patterns, with precipitation showing stronger partial correlations across all drought types (meteorological: 0.78; agricultural: 0.76; hydrological: 0.60; socioeconomic: 0.39) compared to temperature (meteorological: − 0.45; agricultural: − 0.38; hydrological: − 0.27; socioeconomic: − 0.18). These results quantitatively establish a hierarchical climate response gradient among dr...