Integrating Stock-Flow Modeling and Energy System Optimization to Explore Decarbonization Pathways for China’s Cement Industry

作者：Jingyang Song, Xiaoke Su, Lijing Hou, Chunli Chu, Tongyuan Wu, Hancheng Dai, Yang Ou, Osamu Nishiura, Zhi Cao, Meiting Ju · 发表于：Environmental Science & Technology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1021/acs.est.4c14724 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Environmental Impact and Sustainability、Sustainable Industrial Ecology

High Resolution Image Download MS PowerPoint Slide In the global effort to mitigate climate change, the cement sector remains highly emission-intensive and hard-to-decarbonize. Previous research has highlighted material efficiency strategies─including more intensive use, lifetime extension, material-efficient design, and end-of-life processes, as demand-side options for reducing emissions. However, unintended effects and supply side responses, such as shifts in technological portfolios and investment trends, remain underexplored. This study develops a framework that couples detailed stock-flow modeling and a bottom-up energy system optimization model, a subcategory of integrated assessment models. Taking China’s cement sector as a pilot case, our framework projects comprehensive decarbonization pathways for cement-based materials. The results show that material efficiency strategies could reduce cement demand by 57%, significantly decreasing reliance on supply side technologies required for net-zero emissions, with these strategies contributing nearly 50% of the cumulative decarbonization effort. The material efficiency strategies also reduce the incremental total production costs associated with low-carbon technologies in upstream sectors. When combined with CO 2 uptake from cement-based materials, this study offers a cost-effective pathway for achieving net-zero emissions in the cement sector, lowering both costs and CO 2 emissions without heavy dependence on carbon capture...