Historical trends and controlling factors of isoprene emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models

作者：Thi Nhu Ngoc, Kengo Sudo, Akihiko Ito, L. K. Emmons, Vaishali Naïk, Kostas Tsigaridis, Øyvind Seland, Gerd Folberth, Douglas I. Kelley · 发表于：Geoscientific model development · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/gmd-18-2079-2025 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics、Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols、Atmospheric Ozone and Climate

Abstract. Terrestrial isoprene, a biogenic volatile organic compound emitted by many plants, indirectly influences Earth's radiative balance through its interactions with atmospheric oxidants, affecting ozone formation, methane lifetime, and secondary aerosol production. Elucidating its historical changes is therefore important for predicting climate change and air quality. Isoprene emissions can respond to climate (e.g. temperature, shortwave radiation, precipitation), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, historical trends of isoprene emissions and the relative influences of the respective drivers of those trends remain highly uncertain. This study addresses uncertainty in historical isoprene emission trends and their influential factors, particularly the roles of climate, LULCC, and atmospheric CO2 (via fertilization and inhibition effects). The findings are expected to reconcile discrepancies among different modelling approaches and to improve predictions of isoprene emissions and their climate change effects. To investigate isoprene emission trends, controlling factors, and discrepancies among models, we analysed long-term (1850–2014) global isoprene emissions from online simulations of CMIP6 Earth system models and offline simulations using the Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT) dynamic vegetation model driven by climate reanalysis data. Mean annual global present-day isoprene emissions agree well amon...