Changes and trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years, life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy in China from 1990 to 2021: a secondary analysis of the global burden of disease 2021

作者：Xuelin Cheng, Wenchang Jia, Jin Zhou, Yaxin Xu, Jian Zou, Ming Liu, Sunfang Jiang, Xiaopan Li · 发表于：Archives of Public Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s13690-025-01558-8 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、COVID-19 and healthcare impacts、Health disparities and outcomes

BACKGROUND: The aging population in China is increasingly evident, leading to a shift in the patterns of disease burden. This study aims to investigate changes and trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy (LE), and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) in China from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: This study presents a secondary analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, with a focus on mortality, DALYs, LE, and HALE. We examined changes in these indicators in China from 1990 to 2021, comparing them with global averages and across five SDI regions. Using Joinpoint Regression Software, we analyzed trends in the top ten cause-specific DALY rates in 2021. Furthermore, we employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model to forecast age-standardized rates (ASR) of mortality for the next decade. RESULTS: China witnessed a decrease in the ASRs of mortality (1198.16/100,000 [1098.61-1294.10] to 644.68/100,000 [555.12-735.51]) and DALYs (43085.42/100,000 [39330.62-47273.39] to 22717.19/100,000 [19748.18-25903.34]) from 1990 to 2021. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the ASRs of mortality and DALY declined in China (23009.47/100,000 [19661.21-26495.58] in 2019), but global rates and those across the five SDI (Socio-demographic Index) regions increased. Projections indicate a continued decline in the ASRs of mortality over the next decade, from 2019 to 2035 and 2021 to 2035. Notably, DALY rates for the top 10 level 2 causes in 2021 decreased over...