Effects of land use/cover change on propagation dynamics from meteorological to soil moisture drought considering nonstationarity

作者：Meng Dai, Ping Feng, Jianzhu Li, Xiaogang Shi, Hanye Wang · 发表于：Agricultural Water Management · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109452 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Soil Moisture and Remote Sensing

Precipitation deficit will directly affect soil water, and soil water deficit will directly influence crop growth and exert a definite influence on the hydrological cycle. At present, drought propagation is based mainly on the hypothesis of serial stationarity to analyze the propagation from meteorological drought (MD) to soil moisture drought (SMD), but with global climate change, the hypothesis of stationarity has been overturned. Research on drought propagation under nonstationarity is lacking. To this end, it is exceedingly meaningful to explore the propagation from MD to SMD under nonstationary conditions. Taking three regions of Luanhe River Basin (LRB) as the subject of study, the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model was utilized to construct a nonstationary drought index. The drought propagation time (PT m ) and propagation threshold (PT r ) were calculated via conditional probability, and the dynamic change in drought propagation was analyzed via a moving window. Finally, the optimal parameters of the model were established on the basis of land use data from 1980 via the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model, and the land use data from 2000 and 2018 were replaced to investigate the comprehensive effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate on drought propagation. The findings indicated that (1) the precipitation and soil moisture series were nonstationary during the growing season from 1962 to 2018; (2) the shortest st...