Multidimensional assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and future predictions of urban heat islands in Jinan, China

作者：Lingye Tan, Tiong Lee Kong Robert, Yan Zhang, Siyi Huang, Ziyang Zhang · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-025-86199-1 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Urban Heat Island Mitigation、Remote Sensing and Land Use、Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of land surface temperature (LST) is crucial for managing urban thermal environments and mitigating urban heat island (UHI) effects. This study addresses the challenge of quantifying the complex interactions among natural and anthropogenic factors driving LST variations, while leveraging advanced modeling techniques to predict future thermal risks in rapidly urbanizing regions. By analyzing the evolution of LST in Jinan city, China, from 2002 to 2022, and forecasts future trends using advanced spatial analysis and predictive modeling techniques. Directional shifts in LST were quantified using the quadrant azimuth method and the standard deviation ellipse method, both of which analyze spatial distribution and dispersion. To identify the key drivers of LST variations, 14 socioeconomic and environmental factors were assessed using the optimal parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD) model, which effectively handles spatial heterogeneity. Key findings include: (1) a significant northward shift in the LST centroid and a 26.64% expansion in high-temperature areas, with noticeable cooling effects in the city center. (2) A nonlinear relationship between LST and socioeconomic factors, particularly GDP, where cooling effects were observed when GDP exceeded 10,000 yuan/km 2 . (3) Synergistic interactions, especially between topographic factors (such as the Digital Elevation Model, DEM) and land-use indices (e.g., normalized difference bu...