Challenges and opportunities in climate risk assessment: future directions for assessing complex climate risks

作者：Oscar Higuera Roa, Michaela Bachmann, Reinhard Mechler, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Lena Reimann, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Jeroen C J H Aerts, Franciscus Eduard Buskop, Anna Pirani, Jaroslav Myšiak · 发表于：Environmental Research Letters · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/adc756 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：Environmental and Social Impact Assessments

Abstract As climate change impacts intensify worldwide, assessing climate risks comprehensively is essential for guiding effective disaster risk management and adaptation strategies. This systematic literature review examines the latest developments in Climate Risk Assessment (CRA), focusing on how climate risks are framed and assessed. It explores advancements, ongoing challenges, and emerging opportunities to guide future generations of CRAs. Key findings highlight a more nuanced risk framework that incorporates climate responses, modulating the three risk determinants (exposure, vulnerability, and hazards), as outlined in the latest IPCC assessment. The state-of-the-art concentrates on the temporal and spatial characteristics of hazards, while exposure and vulnerability are increasingly understood as dynamic concepts influenced by socioeconomic changes. Recent developments, such as multi-hazard approaches, risk tolerance integration, and the concept of Climatic Impact-Drivers (CID), provide new perspectives on assessing climate risks. However, managing complexity and uncertainty remain the main operational challenges, underscoring the need for improved CRA methodologies and models, as well as consistent, interoperable datasets. The paper discusses avenues to advance CRA, emphasizing the importance of bridging the gap between academic advancements and practical implementation. Conceptual recommendations include adopting a systemic approach to, for example, better account fo...