Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis: Predictors of Relapsing, Recurrent, and Chronic Depression in Young People

作者：Scott D. Tagliaferri, Laura K. M. Han, Muskan Khetan, Josh Nguyen, Connie Markulev, Simon Rice, Sue Cotton, Michael Berk, Enda M. Byrne, Debra Rickwood, Christopher G. Davey, Peter Koval, Aswin Ratheesh, Patrick D. McGorry, Mario Álvarez‐Jiménez, Lianne Schmaal · 发表于：Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.jaac.2025.03.019 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development、Mental Health Treatment and Access、Suicide and Self-Harm Studies

OBJECTIVE: Youth depression disrupts the social and vocational transition into adulthood. Most depression burden is caused by recurring or chronic episodes. Identifying young people at risk for relapsing, recurring, or chronic depression is critical. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed the literature on prognostic factors for relapsing, recurrent, and chronic depression in young people. METHOD: We searched the literature up (MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Embase, CENTRAL, WHO ICTRP, ClinicalTrials.gov, bioRxiv, MedRxiv) to March 6, 2024, and included cohort studies and randomized trials that assessed any prognostic factor for relapse, recurrence, or chronicity of depression in young people (aged 10-25 years at baseline) with a minimum of a 3-month follow-up. We assessed individual study risk of bias using the QUIPS tool and the certainty of evidence via the GRADE approach. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses with Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman adjustment when 3 or more estimates on the same prognostic factor were available. Qualitative synthesis was conducted to identify promising prognostic factors that could not be meta-analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 76 reports of 46 studies (unique cohorts or trials) were included that tested 388 unique prognostic factors in 7,488 young people experiencing depression. The majority of the reports were at high risk of bias (87%). We conducted 22 meta-analyses on unadjusted, and 7 on adjusted, prognostic factors of a poor course trajec...