Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models

作者：Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, Henning W. Rust · 发表于：Hydrology and earth system sciences · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Climate variability and models

Abstract. Land use change, particularly deforestation, significantly influences the global climate system. While various studies have explored how deforestation affects temperature and precipitation, its impact on drought remains less explored. Understanding these effects across different climate zones and timescales is crucial for crafting effective land use policies aimed at mitigating climate change. This study investigates how changes in forest cover affect drought across different timescales and climate zones using simulated deforestation scenarios, where forests are converted to grasslands. The study utilizes data from nine global climate models, including BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3-Veg, GISS-E2-1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-ES2L, and UKESM1-0-LL, which contribute to the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Drought effects are assessed by examining the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in the idealized global deforestation experiment (deforest-global) using the pre-industrial control simulation (piControl) as the reference. At the 3-month scale (SPEI03), global SPEI responses to deforestation are negative overall, indicating increased dryness conditions, particularly in tropical regions, while causing wetter conditions in dry regions. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) of SPEI03 is -0.19±0.05 (mean ± standard deviation) in tropical regions and 0.07±0.05 in dry regions. The impact on drought conditions becomes ...