Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks

作者：Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean‐Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, Thibault Datry · 发表于：Hydrology and earth system sciences · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/hess-29-1615-2025 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Hydrological Forecasting Using AI、Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes

Abstract. Climate and land use changes, as well as human water use and flow alteration, are causing worldwide shifts in river flow dynamics. During the last decades, low flows, flow intermittence, and drying have increased in many regions of the world, including Europe. This trend is projected to continue and amplify in the future, resulting in more frequent and intense hydrological droughts. However, due to a lack of data and studies on temporary rivers in the past, little is known about the processes governing the development of flow intermittence and drying, their timing and frequency, or their long-term evolution under climate change. Moreover, understanding the impact of climate change on the drying up of rivers is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems, including the biodiversity and functional integrity of freshwater systems. This study is one of the first to present future projections of drying in intermittent river networks and to analyse future changes in the drying patterns at a high spatial and temporal resolution. Flow intermittence projections were produced using a hybrid hydrological model forced with climate projection data from 1985 until 2100 under three climate scenarios in six European drying river networks. The studied watershed areas are situated in different biogeographic regions, located in Spain, France, Croatia, Hungary, Czechia, and Finland, and their areas range from 150 to 350 km2. Additionally, flow intermittence ind...