Spatial prediction of wild boar distribution in Thailand applications for African swine fever prevention and control

作者：Weerapong Thanapongtharm, Anuwat Wiratsudakul, Marius Gilbert, Tatiyanuch Chamsai, Choenkwan Pabutta, Witthawat Wiriyarat, Yooni Oh, Sarah I. Jayme, Neramit Songsaeng, Komsan Maneekan, Terdsak Yano, Sarin Suwanpakdee · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-025-94922-1 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology、Vector-Borne Animal Diseases、Zoonotic diseases and public health

African swine fever (ASF) has spread to many Southeast Asian countries, affecting domestic pig farms and wild boars. This is especially prevalent in areas where human settlements, domestic animals, and wildlife intersect. Our study suggests using the Random Forest (RF) technique to predict the presence or absence of wild boars and estimate their population density in a specified area. We suggest using data from the Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART) to estimate the wild boar population in Southeast Asian countries, particularly in mainland Southeast Asia. Our findings indicate a relatively high abundance of free-ranging wild boars in protected areas of northwest Thailand, where there is a significant interface between domestic pig farms and wild boars bordering Myanmar. Wild boars were also observed in the northern region, bordering Lao PDR, and in the central and southern regions of Thailand. These findings highlight the need for ASF surveillance in border areas. The study also found that the presence of wild boars is linked to deep forest cover, elevation, and distance to water bodies, in contrast, a high density of human population, rainfed cropland, and irrigated cropland were negatively associated. These results are valuable for planning risk mitigation strategies against ASF infection in wild boars and domestic pigs in Thailand and Southeast Asia for transboundary disease surveillance.