The impact of Carbon Trading Pilots on carbon emission reduction in China's power industry: A study using the Generalized Synthetic Control Method

作者：Shan Peng, Yan Zhang, Lei Zhang, Xiuzhu Zang, Zhengyuan Zhai · 发表于：Energy Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.egyr.2025.03.019 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Climate Change Policy and Economics、Environmental Impact and Sustainability、Energy, Environment, Economic Growth

Carbon emissions trading is widely recognized by countries around the globe as a highly effective strategy for managing greenhouse gases. China, as the world's largest emitter, is responsible for more than 40 % of its own carbon emissions from the power industry. Thus, it is crucial to study how carbon emissions trading affects carbon emissions in the power industry. This study utilizes the Generalized Synthetic Control Method (GSCM) to examine the effects of Carbon Trading Pilots on carbon emission reduction within China’s power sector. Additionally, the pathways for cutting carbon emissions in the power industry were investigated using a mediation effect model. Results reveal that: 1) Carbon Trading Pilots can consistently restrain carbon emissions, with an average reduction of 28.449 million tons (26.9 %). 2) The electricity power structure substantially influences emissions within the power industry, whereas various carbon quota allocation schemes have a relatively modest effect. 3) Carbon Trading Pilots have reduced carbon emissions in the power industry through at least two channels: reducing the scale of thermal power and curbing power demand.