Effects of temperature and environmental covariates on the dynamic transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Zhejiang, China

作者：Wanqi Wen, Ziping Miao, Dashan Zheng, Feng Ling, Zhengmin Qian, B. de Foy, Steven W. Howard, Jimin Sun, Hualiang Lin · 发表于：PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1371/journal.pntd.0012884 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Viral Infections and Immunology Research、Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology、Virology and Viral Diseases

BACKGROUND: Studies have documented the impact of temperature on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); however, no study has examined its impact on the transmissibility. METHODS: The longitudinal surveillance data of HFMD in Zhejiang Province during 2013-2019 were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. The incidence of HFMD was represented by daily case counts, and the transmissibility was quantified as the instantaneous reproductive number ([Formula: see text]). The case time series design was applied to investigate the association between temperature and HFMD incidence at small-scale spatial patterns (i.e., townships). General additive model was further employed to analyze the effects of temperature and other driving factors on the transmissibility of HFMD. Separate models were also conducted for each city, along with seasonal and spatial stratified analysis. RESULTS: We observed an inverted V-shaped association between temperature and HFMD incidence, with the highest cumulative relative risk (RR: 3.81, 95% CI: 3.75-3.86) at 28°C compared to the reference temperature. Notably, we discovered that HFMD transmissibility exhibited a similar but more pronounced sensitivity to temperature changes, peaking at a lower temperature of 19.69°C. City-specific and stratified results were aligned with the overall provincial pattern. Additionally, other significant driving factors of HFMD transmissibility included the depletio...