Critical load exceedances for North America and Europe using an ensemble of models and an investigation of causes of environmental impact estimate variability: an AQMEII4 study

作者：Paul A. Makar, Philip Cheung, Christian Hogrefe, Ayodeji Akingunola, Ümmügülsüm Alyüz, Jesse O. Bash, Michael D. Bell, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Butler, Hazel Cathcart, Olivia E. Clifton, Alma Hodžić, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard van Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupaşcu, Jason Lynch, Kester Momoh, Juan L. Pérez, Jonathan Pleim, Young‐Hee Ryu, Roberto San José, Donna Schwede, Thomas Scheuschner, Mark W. Shephard, Ranjeet S. Sokhi, Stefano Galmarini · 发表于：Atmospheric chemistry and physics · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/acp-25-3049-2025 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols、Air Quality and Health Impacts、Plant responses to elevated CO2

Abstract. Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) in different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4), to identify where the risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and European 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. Targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed for an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. Datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were created for this analysis. These were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2 % to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2 % to 11.4 %). All models agreed regarding the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both the severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impa...