Mortality Projections, Regional Disparities in the Burden of Neonatal Disorders, and the Status of Achieving SDG Targets by 2030 in South Asia: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Manya Soni, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Ashok Kumar Balaraman, R. Roopashree, Mandeep Kaur, Manish Srivastava, Amit Barwal, G. V. Siva Prasad, Pranchal Rajput, Rukshar Syed, Gajendra Sharma, Sunil Kumar, Ganesh Bushi, Nagavalli Chilakam, Sakshi Pandey, Manvinder Brar, Rachana Mehta, Sanjit Sah, Muhammed Shabil, Abhay Gaidhane, Mahendra Pratap Singh · 发表于：Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1007/s44197-025-00359-0 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Global Maternal and Child Health、Child Nutrition and Water Access、Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare

BACKGROUND: Neonatal disorders represent a significant public health challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where they account for 79% of global neonatal mortality. South Asia, comprising countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, bears a disproportionately high burden, contributing to 38% of the world's neonatal deaths. Despite notable progress, South Asia remains off track in meeting the Sustainable development goals (SDG). This study aims to assess the current burden, trends in neonatal disorders, and forecast mortality rates across South Asian countries, providing insights to guide investment priorities and improve neonatal outcomes. METHODS: Data for this study were sourced from the Global burden of disease (GBD) 2021 study, which utilizes a Bayesian meta-regression model to estimate mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Spatial maps depicting the age-standardized prevalence rate and age-standardized mortality rate for neonatal disorders in South Asia were generated using QGIS software. Mortality forecasts for the period 2022-2031, attributed to various neonatal disorders, were produced employing the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model in R software. Additionally, an analysis of overall neonatal mortality trends from 1980 to 2021 was conducted, supplemented by a heat map that compares DALYs attributable to various neonatal disorders across South Asian countries in 2021. RESULTS: Between...