Rapid development of thermokarst lakes and driving factors along a highway in Northeast China (2000–2020)

作者：Jun Liang, Shuai Huang, Xiaoying Jin, Xiaoying Li, Anyuan Li, Lin Yang, Wen‐Hui Wang, Jianjun Tang, Ze Zhang, YongPing Wang, SanZhong LI, Xianglong Li, JinBang Zhai, Xue Yang, Hongwei Wang, Lanzhi Lü, Ruixia He, Raul‐David Șerban, Huijun Jin · 发表于：Research in Cold and Arid Regions · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.rcar.2025.03.004 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Climate change and permafrost、Cryospheric studies and observations、Landslides and related hazards

In the northern Da Xing'anling Mountains of Northeast China, thermokarst lakes have undergone significant changes. These changes are particularly evident along the Highway X302, which stretches from Yakeshi in the south to Yituli'he in the north, across zones of discontinuous to patchy Xing'an permafrost (XAP). Thermokarst lakes are highly sensitive to both climate warming and human activities. However, changes in their areal extent and number over the past two decades remain unclear. To identify the drivers of thermokarst lake changes in the XAP region, this study analyzes the relationship among lake dynamics, climate change, and human activities. Rich data on lake changes were extracted using the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and verified against the Joint Research Centre (JRC) global surface water datasets. The results show a net increase in both the number and areal extent of thermokarst lakes along the Highway X302 from 2000 to 2020. Larger lakes (greater than 0.01 km 2 ) expanded in surface area. Meanwhile, smaller lakes (less than 0.01 km 2 ) increased in number. A bell-shaped trend was observed, with an initial increase in lake area followed by a decline around 2013. Before 2013, climate factors such as precipitation, air temperature, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) strongly influenced lake changes. After 2013, annual precipitation became the dominant driver of lake expansion. Human activities also contrib...