High temporal variability not trend dominates Mediterranean precipitation

作者：Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano, Yves Tramblay, Fergus Reig, José Carlos González Hidalgo, Santiago Beguerı́a, Michele Brunetti, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Leonardo Patalen, Aleksandra Kržič, Piero Lionello, Miguel M. Lima, Ricardo M. Trigo, Ahmed El Kenawy, Ali Salem Eddenjal, Murat Türkeş, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Veronica Manara, Maurizio Maugeri, Wafae Badi, Shifa Mathbout, Renato Bertalanič, Lilia Bocheva, İsmail Dabanlı, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Brigitte Dubuisson, Salah Sahabi Abed, Fayez Abdulla, Abbas Fayad, S. Hodžić, Mirjana Ivanov, Иван Радевски, Dhais Peña‐Angulo, Jorge Lorenzo‐Lacruz, Fernando Domínguez‐Castro, Luis Gimeno‐Sotelo, Ricardo García‐Herrera, Magí Franquesa, Amar Halifa‐Marín, María Adell-Michavila, Iván Noguera, David Barriopedro, José M. Garrido‐Pérez, César Azorín-Molina, Miguel Andres-Martin, Luís Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, María Carmen Llasat, Yannis Markonis, Rabeb Selmi, Soumaya Ben Rached, Slavica Radovanović, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Aurélien Ribes, Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi, Siham Bataineh, El Mahdi El Khalki, S. M. Robaa, Amina Boucetta, Karam Alsafadi, Nikοs Mamassis, Safwan Mohammed, Beatriz Fernández‐Duque, Sorin Cheval, Sara Moutia, Aleksandra Stevkov, Silvana Stevkova, M. Y. Luna, Vera Potopová · 发表于：Nature · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41586-024-08576-6 · 被引用次数：115 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2–4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region...