Uncertainties in ecosystem services assessments and their implications for decision support – A semi-systematic literature review

作者：Franziska Walther, David N. Barton, Jonas Schwaab, Jarumi Kato-Huerta, Bart Immerzeel, Mihai Adamescu, Erling Andersen, Martha Verónica Arámbula Coyote, Ildikó Arany, Mario V. Balzan, Adriana Bruggeman, Cláudia Carvalho‐Santos, Constantin Cazacu, Davide Geneletti, Relu Giucă, Miguel Inácio, Erwann Lagabrielle, Sabine Lange, Solen Le Clec’h, Zhi Yi Vanessa Lim, Ulla Mörtberg, Stoyan Nedkov, Ana Paula Portela, Anna Porucznik, Tudor Racoviceanu, Paula Rendón, Daniela Ribeiro, Joana Seguin, Mateja Šmid Hribar, Vanya Stoycheva, Henrik Vejre, Christos Zoumides, Adrienne Grêt‐Regamey · 发表于：Ecosystem Services · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecoser.2025.101714 · 被引用次数：32 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Urban Planning and Valuation、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management

• Uptake of ecosystem services assessment results in decision-making remains low. • Only 4% out of 904 analysed ecosystem services studies document uptake. • Including the assessment of uncertainties can improve the potential for uptake. • Clear policy context, suitable models and stakeholder involvement support uptake. Ecosystem services (ES) assessments are rarely integrated into decision-making processes, with uncertainties often cited as a major barrier. While various uncertainties, such as modelling and data uncertainties, are inherent in ES assessments, their role in uptake of ES assessment results in decision-making remains unclear. We conducted a semi-systematic literature review of scientific papers assessing ES to reveal how uncertainties in ES assessments relate to ES uptake, i.e., the potential use of ES assessment results by decision makers. We performed logistic regressions to analyse the influence of three main sources of uncertainty on ES uptake, i.e., (i) modelling uncertainties, (ii) uncertainties related to qualitative and quantitative descriptions of scenarios, and (iii) uncertainties related to the transfer of ES assessment results into decision-making. Furthermore, we investigated if stakeholder involvement plays a role in ES uptake. First, and most importantly, the results indicate that clarifying the policy context can decrease decision uncertainty and thus improve ES uptake. Referring to a specific policy, following a decisive study purpose and docume...