The global burden of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis: trends and predictions

作者：Xiaotong Wang, Zhaoyi Liu, Yi Na, Liguo Li, Li Ma, Linyue Yuan, Xuejiao Wang · 发表于：International Urology and Nephrology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1007/s11255-025-04440-2 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Chronic Kidney Disease and Diabetes、Renal Diseases and Glomerulopathies、Dialysis and Renal Disease Management

BACKGROUND: Glomerulonephritis (GN), one of the primary causes of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is gaining recognition as a major public health issue. This research sought to evaluate the worldwide impact of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis (GN-CKD) between 1990 and 2021 and to forecast trends up to 2036, leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. METHODS: The analysis of GN-CKD from 1990 to 2021 utilized GBD open data as a secondary dataset to examine global prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates of GN-CKD, and the changing trends of these indicators were statistically analyzed. To assess the practical difference between each country/region and the frontier, we utilized the 2021 DALYs and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). To assist healthcare institutions in formulating more effective public health policies, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate until 2036 were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling techniques. RESULTS: The global prevalence rate of GN-CKD, as indicated by the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), grew 10.81% between 1990 and 2021, with a marginal average annual change of 0.04 (AAPC0.04, 0.03-0.05). Similarly, there was an increase of 15.84% in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for GN-CKD during this period, with an average annual trend of 0.50 (AAPC0.50, 0.41-0.59). Moreover, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASYR) for GN-CKD observed an upwar...