A novel dynamic flash flood early warning framework based on distributed hydrologic modeling

作者：Yiru Chen, Nan Zhang, Xiaolei Zhang, Guangpeng Wang, Wang Yun, Ronghua Liu, Meihong Ma · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113247 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

• Proposed a novel dynamic flash flood early warning framework based on a distributed hydrological model. • Identified multi-level warning flow and the percentage of multi-level risk areas. • Coupling disaster risk levels with critical rainfall thresholds enables dynamic early warning for flash floods. Flash flood disaster prevention urgently requires high-precision hydrological models. However, extreme weather increases the uncertainty of flash flood risks, making it difficult for existing hydrological models to accurately simulate the flash flood processes. This study focuses on the Daxi River watershed in Guangdong Province. Based on verifying the applicability of the China Flash Flood Hydrological Modeling System (CNFF), the Manning formula is introduced to invert the calculation of the critical rainfall threshold for flash floods. The flash flood-inducing factors were then qualitatively analyzed using multiple indicators to determine their risk levels, thereby proposing a dynamic early warning framework for flash flood disasters. Results indicate that: 1) the CNFF demonstrated relatively high simulation accuracy, with the average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) during the calibration and validation periods being 0.79 and 0.89, respectively; 2) dynamic rainfall warning indicators for 1-hour intervals were obtained under different soil moisture conditions. The warning, danger, and extreme danger flow rates were determined to be 176.3 m 3 /s, 308 m 3 /s, and 483.6 m 3 /s, r...