Machine learning for the rElapse risk eValuation in acute biliary pancreatitis: The deep learning MINERVA study protocol

作者：Mauro Podda, Adolfo Pisanu, Gianluca Pellino, Adriano De Simone, Lucio Selvaggi, Valentina Murzi, Eleonora Locci, Matteo Rottoli, Giacomo Calini, Stefano Cardelli, Fausto Catena, Carlo Vallicelli, Raffaele Bova, Gabriele Vigutto, Fabrizio D’Acapito, Giorgio Ercolani, Leonardo Solaini, Alan Biloslavo, Paola Germani, Camilla Colutta, Savino Occhionorelli, Domenico Lacavalla, Maria Grazia Sibilla, Stefano Olmi, Matteo Uccelli, Alberto Oldani, Alessio Giordano, Tommaso Guagni, Davina Perini, Francesco Pata, Bruno Nardo, Daniele Paglione, Giusi Franco, Matteo Donadon, Marcello Di Martino, Dario Bruzzese, Daniela Pacella · 发表于：World Journal of Emergency Surgery · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s13017-025-00594-7 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Pancreatitis Pathology and Treatment、Gallbladder and Bile Duct Disorders、Pancreatic and Hepatic Oncology Research

BACKGROUND: Mild acute biliary pancreatitis (MABP) presents significant clinical and economic challenges due to its potential for relapse. Current guidelines advocate for early cholecystectomy (EC) during the same hospital admission to prevent recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP). Despite these recommendations, implementation in clinical practice varies, highlighting the need for reliable and accessible predictive tools. The MINERVA study aims to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of RAP (at 30, 60, 90 days, and at 1-year) in MABP patients, enhancing decision-making processes. METHODS: The MINERVA study will be conducted across multiple academic and community hospitals in Italy. Adult patients with a clinical diagnosis of MABP, in accordance with the revised Atlanta Criteria, who have not undergone EC during index admission will be included. Exclusion criteria encompass non-biliary aetiology, severe pancreatitis, and the inability to provide informed consent. The study involves both retrospective data from the MANCTRA-1 study and prospective data collection. Data will be captured using REDCap. The ML model will utilise convolutional neural networks (CNN) for feature extraction and risk prediction. The model includes the following steps: the spatial transformation of variables using kernel Principal Component Analysis (kPCA), the creation of 2D images from transformed data, the application of convolutional filters, max-pooling, flattening, and...