Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Jessica A Kerr, George Patton, Karly I. Cini, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Nasir Abbas, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Sherief Mohamed Abd-Elsalam, Arash Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Auwal Abdullahi, Hansani Madushika Abeywickrama, Alemwork Abie, Olumide A Abiodun, Shady Abohashem, Dariush Abtahi, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Hana J Abukhadijah, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu‐Zaid, Lisa C. Adams, Mesafint Molla Adane, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Kamoru Ademola Adedokun, Nurudeen Adedayo Adegoke, Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Usha Sachidananda Adiga, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Abdelrahman Yousry Afify, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Suneth Buddhika Agampodi, Shahin Aghamiri, César Agostinis Sobrinho, Williams Agyemang‐Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Fuzail Ahmad, Muayyad Mustafa Ahmad, Noah S. Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai Awad Ahmed, Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Ashley E Akrami, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Zain Al Ta’ani, Yazan Al Thaher, Tariq A. Alalwan, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer, Amani N. Alansari, Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal, Mohammed ALBashtawy, Bezawit Abeje Alemayehu, Abdelazeem Mohamed Algammal, Khalid F. AlHabib, Dari Alhuwail, Abid Ali, Endale Alemayehu Ali, Mohammad Daud Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Waad Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Yousef Alimohamadi, Samah W. Al‐Jabi, Mohamad Aljofan, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ahmad H. AlKhatib, Wael A. Almahmeed, Sabah Al-Marwani, Mahmoud A. Alomari, Saleh A. Alqahtani, Abdullah Ali Alqarni, Ahmad Alrawashdeh, Intima Alrimawi, Sahel Majed Alrousan, Najim Z. Alshahrani, Zaid Altaany, Awais Altaf, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Mohammad Sami Al-Wardat, Yaser Mohammed Al‐Worafi, Hany Z. Aly, Safwat Aly, Karem Hasan Alzoubi, Melika Haji Mohammadi, Tewodros Getnet Amera, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Dickson Abanimi Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Roshan Arjun Ananda, Robert Ancuceanu, Mohammed Tahir Ansari, Sumbul Ansari, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Sumadi Lukman Anwar, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Juan Pablo Arab, Jalal Arabloo, Mosab Arafat, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Demelash Areda, Brhane Berhe Aregawi, Hidayat Arifin, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Mahwish Arooj, Amit Arora, Anton A Artamonov, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Tahira Ashraf, Bernard Kwadwo Yeboah Asiamah-Asare, Thomas Astell‐Burt, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Prince Atorkey, Alok Atreya, Zaure Maratovna Aumoldaeva, Mamaru Ayenew Awoke, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Setognal Birara Aychiluhm, Amirali Azimi, Sadat Abdulla Aziz, Shahkaar Aziz, Ahmed Y. Azzam, Domenico Azzolino, Mina Babashahi, Giridhara R. Babu, Alaa Aboelnour Badran, Nasser Bagheri, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Rajon Banik, Shirin Barati, Mainak Bardhan, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Sı́món Barquera, Amadou Barrow, Lingkan Barua, Mohammad‐Mahdi Bastan, Saurav Basu, Reza Bayat, Mulat Tirfie Bayih, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Narasimha Murthy Beeraka, Priyamadhaba Behera, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramírez, Umar Muhammad Bello, Luı́s Belo, Derrick Bennett, Maria Bergami, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Abiye Assefa Berihun, Ajeet Singh Bhadoria, Neeraj B. Bhala, Ravi Bharadwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sonu M. M. Bhaskar, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Cem Bilgin, Catherine Bisignano, Bijit Biswas, Bruno Bizzozero‐Peroni, Espen Bjertness, Tone Bjørge, Archith Boloor, Sri Harsha Boppana, Samuel Adolf Bosoka, Souad Bouaoud, Edward J. Boyko, Dejana Braithwaite, Javier Brazo‐Sayavera, Hermann Brenner, Dana Bryazka, Raffaele Bugiardini, Linh Phuong Bui, Yasser Khalil Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Mehtap Çakmak Barsbay, Daniela Cornelia Călina, Luis Alberto Cámera, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Si Cao, Angelo Capodici, Claudia Carletti, Andre Ferrer Carvalho, Márcia C. Carvalho, Mônica Cattafesta, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Achille Cernigliaro, Joshua Chadwick, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Eeshwar K Chandrasekar, Jung‐Chen Chang, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Anis Ahmad Chaudhary, Akhilanand Chaurasia, An‐Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Nicholas Chew, Gerald Chi, Ritesh Chimoriya, Patrick R Ching, Abdulaal Chitheer, Dong‐Woo Choi, Bryan Chong, Chean Lin Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Shivani Chopra, Hou In Chou, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Sheng‐Chia Chung, S. Y. Chung, Muhammad Chutiyami, Rebecca M Cogen, Alyssa Columbus, Nathalie Conrad, Michael H Criqui, Natália Alves Martins, Alanna Gomes da Silva, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Mayank Dalakoti, Emanuele D’Amico, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Lucio D’Anna, Pojsakorn Danpanichkul, Samuel Demissie Darcho, Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Kairat Davletov, Azizallah Dehghan, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Meseret Derbew Molla, Ismail Dergaa, Aragaw Tesfaw Desale, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Devananda Devegowda, Arkadeep Dhali, Bibha Dhungel, Daniel Díaz, Monica Gabriela Dinu, Thanh Chi Mai, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Milad Dodangeh, Phidelia Theresa Doegah, Sushil Dohare, Klara Georgieva Dokova, Paul Narh Doku, Neda Dolatkhah, Mario D’Oria, Fariba Dorostkar, Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi, Rajkumar Prakashbhai Doshi, Robert Kokou Dowou, Mi Du, Samuel Carvalho Dumith, Dorothea Dumuid, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Sulagna Dutta, Alireza Ebrahimi, Kristina Edvardsson, Ashkan Eighaei Sedeh, Michael Ekholuenetale, Rabie Adel El Arab, Ibrahim Farahat El Bayoumy, Mohamed Ahmed Eladl, Said El‐Ashker, Iffat Elbarazi, Islam Y. Elgendy, Muhammed Elhadi, Ashraf El‐Metwally, Mohamed A. Abd Elmonem, Mohamed Hassan Elnaem, Randa Elsheikh, Chadi Eltaha, Theophilus I. Emeto, Maysa Eslami, Natalia Fabin, Heidar Fadavian, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev, Seyed Nooreddin Faraji, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, MoezAlIslam E. Faris, Pawan Sirwan Faris, Mohsen Farjoud Kouhanjani, Umar Farooque, Hossein Farrokhpour, Samuel Aanuoluwapo Fasusi, Patrick Fazeli, Timur Fazylov, Alireza Feizkhah, Ginenus Fekadu, Xiaoqi Feng, Rodrigo Fernández‐Jiménez, Nuno Ribeiro Ferreira, Nataliya A Foigt, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Roham Foroumadi, Celia Fortuna Rodrigues, Matteo Foschi, Kate Louise Francis, Richard Charles Franklin, Aleš Gába, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Yaseen Galali, Silvano Gallus, Balasankar Ganesan, Shivaprakash Gangachannaiah, Miglas Welay Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Lemma Getacher, Molla Getie, Fataneh Ghadirian, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Artyom Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Richard F Gillum, Alem Girmay, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Alessandra Carvalho Goulart, Ayman A. Grada, Michal Grivna, Ashna Grover, Zhongyang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Avirup Guha, Snigdha Gulati, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Zheng Guo, Bhawna Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Kumar Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Roberth Steven Gutiérrez-Murillo, José Guzmán-Esquivel, Najah R Hadi, Zahra Hadian, Nadia M Hamdy, Samer Hamidi, Asif Hanif, Nasrin Hanifi, Graeme J. Hankey, Allie Haq, Josep Maria Haro, Faizul Hasan, Reza Hashempour, Mohammad Hashem Hashempur, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Nageeb Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Afagh Hassanzade Rad, Rasmus J. Havmoeller, Simon Iain Hay, Jeffrey J. 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Jaffar, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Rajesh Kumar Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo B Jakovljevic, Syed Sarmad Javaid, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Felix Jebasingh, Sun Ha Jee, Alelign Tasew Jema, Bijay Mukesh Jeswani, Jost Bruno Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Billingsley Kaambwa, Ali Kabir, Vidya Kadashetti, Ashish Kumar Kakkar, Sanjay Kalra, Saddam Fuad Kanaan, Samuel Berchi Kankam, Arun Kanmanthareddy, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Rami S. Kantar, Debasish Kar, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Paschalis Karakasis, Arman Karimi Behnagh, Sahand Karimzadhagh, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Joonas H. Kauppila, Gbenga Ayodele Kayode, Shemsu Kedir, Dimitrios Kehagias, Ariz Keshwani, Emmanuelle Kesse‐Guyot, Mohammad Keykhaei, Himanshu Khajuria, Pantea Khalili, Alireza Khalilian, Mohamed Khalis, Ajmal Khan, Maseer Khan, Md. 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Larijani, Zohra S Lassi, Hang Tran Thi Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Hye Ah Lee, Munjae Lee, Paul Hong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Wei‐Chen Lee, An Li, Ming‐Chieh Li, Wei Li, Yongze Li, Stephen S Lim, Jialing Lin, Queran Lin, Daniel P. Lindholm, Paulina A Lindstedt, Jue Liu, Justin Lo, José Francisco López‐Gil, Stefan Lorkowski, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Angelina Mageni Lutambi, Zheng Feei, Javier A. Magaña‐Gómez, Nastaran Maghbouli, Mehrdad Mahalleh, Nozad Hussein Mahmood, Azeem Majeed, Konstantinos C. 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Miller, Wai‐Kit Ming, Erkin Mirsaidovich Mirrakhimov, Awoke Misganaw, Habtamu Mitiku, Madhukar Mittal, Jama Mohamed, Mona Gamal Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Taj Mohammad, Sakineh Mohammad‐Alizadeh‐Charandabi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Ibrahim Mohammadzadeh, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Stefania Mondello, Mohammad Ali Moni, Sara Montazeri Namin, AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf, Yousef Moradi, Shane Douglas Morrison, Rohith Motappa, Sumaira Mubarik, Francesk Mulita, Erin C Mullany, Yanjinlkham Munkhsaikhan, Efrén Murillo‐Zamora, Christopher J L Murray, Sani Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Sathish Muthu, Julius Chacha Mwita, Woojae Myung, Abdulrazaq Bidemi Nafiu, Gabriele Nagel, Ganesh R. Naik, Hiten Naik, Gopal S Nambi, Vinay Nangia, Shumaila Nargus, Gustavo G. Nascimento, Mahmoud Nassar, Javaid Nauman, Zakira Naureen, Samidi Nirasha Kumari Navaratna, Nawsherwan Nawsherwan, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Athare Nazri-Panjaki, Masoud Negahdary, Ionuţ Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Soroush Nematollahi, Samata Nepal, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Marie Ng, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Dang Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, Phuong The Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Luciano Nieddu, Mahdieh Niknam, Taxiarchis Konstantinos Nikolouzakis, Ali Nikoobar, Jan René Nkeck, Shuhei Nomura, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor, Mamoona Noreen, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mehran Nouri, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, Fred Nugen, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Aqsha Nur, Felix Kwasi Nyande, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Erin M O’Connell, Ismail Ayoade Odetokun, Akinyemi O D Ofakunrin, James Odhiambo Oguta, In‐Hwan Oh, Hassan Okati‐Aliabad, Sylvester Reuben Okeke, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Andrew T Olagunju, Oladotun Olalusi, Tosin Abiola Olasehinde, Arão Belitardo Oliveira, Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira, Yinka Doris Oluwafemi, Hany A. 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Singh, Kalpana Singh, Lucky Singh, Mitasha Singh, Poornima Suryanath Singh, Surjit Singh, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda Elizabeth Smith, Georgia Smith, Sameh S. M. Soliman, Soroush Soraneh, Michael Spartalis, Bahadar Singh Srichawla, Muhammad Haroon Stanikzai, Antonina Vladimirovna Starodubova, Kurt Straíf, Pete Stubbs, Vetriselvan Subramaniyan, Muritala Odidi Suleiman Odidi, Aleksander Sulkowski, Anusha Sultan Meo, Zhong Sun, Sumam Sunny, Dev Ram Sunuwar, Chandan Kumar Swain, Łukasz Szarpak, Sree Sudha Tanguturi Yella, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei, Ozra Tabatabaei‐Malazy, Seyed‐Amir Tabatabaeizadeh, Shima Tabatabai, Celine Tabche, Mohammad Tabish, Jabeen Taiba, Mircea Ştefan Tampa, Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi, Ker‐Kan Tan, Manoj Tanwar, Saba Tariq, Nathan Y Tat, Mohamad-Hani A. Temsah, Reem Mohamad Hani Temsah, Masayuki Teramoto, Dufera Rikitu Terefa, Jay Tewari, Pugazhenthan Thangaraju, Rekha Thapar, Aravind Thavamani, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Joe Thomas, Sofonyas Abebaw Tiruneh, Tenaw Yimer Tiruye, М. В. Титова, Krishna Kant Tiwari, Sojit Tomo, Marcello A. Tonelli, Mathilde Touvier, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Khaled Trabelsi, Ngoc Ha Tran, Thang Huu Tran, Nguyen Tran Minh Duc, Domenico Tricò, Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen, Guesh Mebrahtom Tsegay, Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu, Sok Cin Tye, Aniefiok John Udoakang, Atta Ullah, Saeed Mahmud Ullah, Shahid Ullah, Muhammad Umair, Lawan Umar, Umar Muhammad Umar, Brigid Unim, Dinesh Upadhya, Era Upadhyay, Jibrin Sammani Usman, Damla Ustunsoz, Masoud Vaezghasemi, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Jef Van den Eynde, Joe Varghese, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Siavash Vaziri, Balachandar Vellingiri, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Madhur Verma, Georgios‐Ioannis Verras, Victor Eduardo Villalobos-Daniel, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Rade Vuković, Mohammad Wahiduzzaman, Cong Wang, Shu Wang, Xingxin Wang, Yanzhong Wang, Kosala Weerakoon, Fei‐Long Wei, Anggi Lukman Wicaksana, Dakshitha Praneeth Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Peter Willeit, Marcin Wlodzimierz Wojewodzic, Qing Xia, Guangqin Xiao, Wanqing Xie, Suowen Xu, Xiaoyue Xu, Galal Yahya, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Yuichiro Yano, Haiqiang Yao, Amir Yarahmadi, Habib Yaribeygi, Pengpeng Ye, Subah Abderehim Yesuf, Dehui Yin, Dong Keon Yon, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Chun-Wei Yuan, Deniz Yüce, Ismaeel U. Yunusa, Giulia Zamagni, Michael Zastrozhin, Mohammed G M Zeariya, Casper J. P. Zhang, Haijun Zhang, Jingya Zhang, Liqun Zhang, Xiaoyi Zhang, Zhiqiang Zhang, Hanqing Zhao, David X. Zheng, Anthony Zhong, Claire Chenwen Zhong, Jiayan Zhou, Bin Zhu, Abzal Zhumagaliuly, Magdalena Zielińska, Osama A. Zitoun, Ghazal Zoghi, Zhiyong Zou, Sa’ed H. Zyoud, Emmanuela E. Gakidou, Susan Margaret Sawyer, Peter S. Azzopardi · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(25)00397-6 · 被引用次数：440 · 研究领域：Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet、Child Nutrition and Water Access、Child and Adolescent Health

BACKGROUND: Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient. Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocation, and interventions. In this Article we report current estimates of overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence, progress over time, and forecasts to inform specific actions. METHODS: Using established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we modelled overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021, and then forecasted to 2050. Primary data for our models included 1321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries and territories from survey microdata, reports, and published literature. These data were used to estimate age-standardised global, regional, and national overweight prevalence and obesity prevalence (separately) for children and young adolescents (aged 5-14 years, typically in school and cared for by child health services) and older adolescents (aged 15-24 years, increasingly out of school and cared for by adult services) by sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2021 were generated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models, which lev...