Simulating the impact of climate change on the suitable area for cotton in Xinjiang based on SDMs model

作者：Haoran Zhang, Yongting Zhu, Zhanli Ma, Jing He, Chun Guo, Qixiang Zhou, Libing Song · 发表于：Industrial Crops and Products · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.indcrop.2025.120750 · 被引用次数：17 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Plant responses to elevated CO2

Climate change significantly affects crop growth and cultivation areas, particularly in Xinjiang, a leading cotton-producing region. To analyze the distribution and changes in suitable areas for cotton cultivation in Xinjiang, we utilized multiple species distribution models (SDMs) during three periods: 1981–2020, 2021–2060, and 2061–2100, under four different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our findings results indicate that species distribution models (SDMs) effectively simulate the distribution of optimal cotton areas in Xinjiang, with Area Under Curve values exceeding 0.95, correlation coefficients above 0.83, and deviance residuals below 0.67. Based on Pearson correlation analysis, we identified land use, altitude, and bioclimatic factors as the primary environmental drivers influencing cotton distribution. Under the SSP245 scenario during the 40 s period, the cotton-suitable areas reached a maximum value of 8.81 × 10 4 km 2 , while in other times and scenarios, the cotton-suitable areas remained stable. Xinjiang's cotton-growing zones are concentrated along both sides of the Tianshan mountain range, scattered in the Tarim Basin, the Yili River basin, and the Hami region. Amid climate change, the cotton-suitable zones in the Kashgar, Hotan, and Keriya River Basins are witnessing the most rapid expansion. At the same time, high-altitude regions of Altay and arid areas in the northern Tacheng-Emin Basin are increasingly unsuitable for cotton cultivation. These findin...