Spatial interpolation and spatiotemporal scanning analysis of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2012 to 2018

作者：Yuan Zhao, Dongfeng Pan, Yanfang Zhang, Lixu Ma, Hong Li, Jingjing Li, Shanghong Liu, Peifeng Liang · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-025-91769-4 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Brucella: diagnosis, epidemiology, treatment、Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology、Zoonotic diseases and public health

Despite the considerable efforts made to address the issue of brucellosis worldwide, its prevalence in dairy products continues to be difficult to estimate and represents a significant public health concern globally. The aim of the present study was to gain a better understanding of the epidemiology of this disease in mainland China. We set out to investigate the annual spatial distribution and potential hotspots of the disease. Data on the incidence rate of brucellosis from 2012 to 2018 was obtained from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System (CDCIS). ArcGIS 10.6 software was employed to perform kriging interpolation analysis and to create a predictive distribution map for brucellosis. Additionally, SaTScan software was utilized to conduct spatial-temporal scanning analysis to identify potential spatial-temporal changes in the incidence rate of brucellosis in China. There is a seasonal trend in the incidence of brucellosis in China, with higher rates observed during the warm season, particularly peaking in May. The results of the exploratory analysis of kriging data indicate that the average incidence map, generated using the second-order Gaussian semi-variance model with log-kriging interpolation, demonstrates the highest accuracy. Spatial and temporal clustering analyses reveal a primary clustering area centered in Heilongjiang, along with three secondary clustering areas located in Tibet, Shanxi, and Hubei. Additionally, the predictive distribution ma...