Modelling of Flood Risks to People’s Life and Property in the Lower Yellow River Under Different Floodplain Management Modes

作者：Yifei Cheng, Junqiang Xia, Hongwei Fang, Meirong Zhou, Zuhao Zhou, Jun Lü, Dongyang Li, Roger A. Falconer, Yuchuan Bai · 发表于：Engineering · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.eng.2025.02.011 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Quantification of river flood risks is a prerequisite for floodplain management and development. The lower Yellow River (LYR) is characterized by a complex channel–floodplain system, which is prone to flooding but inhabits a large population on the floodplains. Many floodplain management modes have been presented, but implementation effects of these management modes have not been evaluated correctly. An integrated model was first proposed to evaluate the flood risks to people’s life and property, covering an improved module of two-dimensional (2D) morphodynamic processes and a module of flood risk evaluation for people, buildings and crops on the floodplains. Two simulation cases were then conducted to validate the model accuracy, including the hyperconcentrated flood event and dike-breach induced flood event occurring in the LYR. Finally, the integrated model was applied to key floodplains in the LYR, and the effects of different floodplain management modes were quantified on the risks to people’s life and property under an extreme flood event. Results indicate that: ① Satisfactory accuracy was achieved in the simulation of these two flood events. The maximum sediment concentration was just underestimated by 9%, and the simulated inundation depth agreed well with the field record; ② severe inundation was predicted to occur in most domains under the current topography (Scheme I), which would be alleviated after implementing different floodplain management modes, with the area...