Longitudinal path analysis of ecosystem water yield effects and its driving forces in the upper Yangtze River basin

作者：Hongxiang Wang, Jiaqi Lan, Lintong Huang, Xuyang Jiao, Kaiang Zhao, Wenxian Guo · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113273 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Environmental and Agricultural Sciences、Environmental Changes in China

• Water yield (WY) exhibits distinct spatiotemporal patterns, with higher values concentrated in southeastern regions driven by urban expansion. • The combination of SWAT and InVEST models effectively captures both sub-basin and localized heterogeneity in WY dynamics from 2000 to 2020. • Climate factors, especially precipitation, remain the dominant drivers of WY, with their influence peaking in 2010, followed by a slight decline by 2020. • Ecological conservation policies introduced in 2017 reduced human activities’ impact on vegetation, but a lag effect in WY response was observed, with peak WY recorded in 2020. • Future scenario simulations indicate that urban development increases flood risks, while ecological protection enhances water retention, promoting sustainable water resource management. Water ecosystem services in the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB) provide essential ecological and economic benefits. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal changes in water yield (WY) from 2000 to 2020 and analyzed interactions between human activities and climate factors using the InVEST-AWY and SWAT models. The raster- and sub-basin-scale simulations captured spatial heterogeneity and validated the model outputs. Future WY distribution for 2030 was projected under two socioeconomic scenarios—urban development (UD) and ecological protection (EP)—by integrating CMIP6 climate data with the PLUS model to assess the combined effects of land use and climate change. The results show a ...