Extreme weather events in southern Brazil warn of agricultural collapse

作者：Rogério de S. Nóia-Júnior, Bruno Fardim Christo, José Eduardo Macedo Pezzopane · 发表于：Next research. · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.nexres.2025.100217 · 被引用次数：6 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Agricultural risk and resilience、Climate variability and models

Southern Brazil, one of the world's largest grain-producing regions, is facing significant threats to its stability due to fluctuating seasonal weather patterns. In recent years, this region has experienced severe and unprecedented summer droughts, such as those observed in 2023, followed by extreme flooding events, including a notable incident in May 2024, where rainfall exceeded 500 mm within a few days. These climatic anomalies have led to exceptional losses in grain production. Consequently, the region faced substantial economic losses with unharvested soybean grains valued at approximately 45 billion BRL (about 8.2 billion USD, considering a conversion factor of 5.5 between BRL and USD) and additional debts amounting to another 45 billion BRL. Future projections indicate a temperature increase of up to 3 °C and heightened precipitation variability by 2100, which could further undermine grain production in the region. To mitigate these risks and safeguard future stability, it is crucial to immediately implement comprehensive climate change adaptation and mitigation measures.