Multiobjective risk-based optimization for real-time interbasin water diversion under decomposed chance-constrained total water use

作者：Ran Mo, Xu Bin, Jianyun Zhang, Guoqing Wang, Ping‐an Zhong, Huili Wang, Lingwei Zhu, Jiaying Tan · 发表于：Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102252 · 被引用次数：2 · 研究领域：Water resources management and optimization、Water Systems and Optimization、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies

The eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiangsu Province, China, a critical national interbasin water diversion system for alleviating water shortages. This study proposed a risk-based multiobjective optimization model for interbasin water diversion, with chance constraint on total water use. Probabilistic forecasting of local streamflow and water demand was adopted to identify operation risks. Multiobjective stochastic optimization was then introduced to minimize the risks of water shortages and spillages. Furthermore, a decomposition method was proposed to investigate the regime of water use under different hydrological conditions, and the decomposed chance constraint was incorporated into the optimization model. Finally, two indices were designed to assess the value of forecasts and water utilization efficiency. Developing a robust and efficient water diversion strategy based on forecast information is crucial. The proposed method with case study provides the following new hydrological insights: (1) conflict occurs between water diversion, spillage, and shortage, with water shortage and diversion representing major contradictions. (2) high-skilled forecasting helps reduce water diversion (22.3 %), spillage (over 60 %), and shortage (approximately 10 %), indicating considerable value for promoting the benefits of water diversion operations. (3) water use constraint focuses restricting excessive water diversion (30.8 %), exploiting the potential of...