Potential Spatial Mismatches Between Marine Predators and Their Prey in the Southern Hemisphere in Response to Climate Change

作者：María Bas, Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh, Alba Fuster‐Alonso, Laura Julià, David March, Francisco Ramı́rez, Luís Cardona, Marta Coll · 发表于：Global Change Biology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1111/gcb.70080 · 被引用次数：13 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies、Marine and fisheries research

Global change is rapidly reshaping species' habitat suitability ranges, hence leading to significant shifts in the distribution of marine life. Contrasting distributional responses among species can alter the spatial overlap between predators and prey, potentially disrupting trophic interactions and affecting food web dynamics. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in the spatial overlap of habitat suitability ranges for trophically related species, including crustaceans, fish, penguins, and pinnipeds across 12 Large Marine Ecosystems from the Southern Hemisphere, merged into three primary regions: South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. To this aim, we first use Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to hindcast and project species-specific changes in suitable habitat from 1850 to 2100 under two future climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low climate forcing) and SSP5-8.5 (high climate forcing). We then analyze changes in species habitat suitability and potential predator-prey spatial overlaps. Findings reveal that marine species generally exhibit changes in their suitable habitats, with pronounced shifts towards higher latitudes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, contrasting trends emerge among predators across functional groups and regions of South America, Southern Africa, Australia and New Zealand. These variations highlight the need for species and regional-specific management responses. We also project contrasting spatial mismatches between predators and prey: pre...