Pollen-based climatic reconstructions for the interglacial analogues of MIS 1 (MIS 19, 11, and 5) in the southwestern Mediterranean: insights from ODP Site 976

作者：Dael Sassoon, Nathalie Combourieu‐Nebout, Odile Peyron, Adèle Bertini, Francesco Toti, V. Lebreton, Marie-Hélène Moncel · 发表于：Climate of the past · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.5194/cp-21-489-2025 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Geology and Paleoclimatology Research、Marine and environmental studies、Archaeology and ancient environmental studies

Abstract. Pleistocene interglacials, specifically Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 19, 11, and 5, have been suggested as analogues of MIS 1 due to similar solar forcing patterns, greenhouse gas concentrations, and sea levels. There has been substantial debate regarding which of these is the most suitable analogue and so far there has been no consensus, although what really emerges from recent work is the high variation in regional climate during these periods. One of the limiting factors in our understanding of these potential analogues is the fact that very few long sequences cover the entire duration of these interglacials at high resolution. In this study, a multi-method approach is used to produce climatic reconstructions for MIS 19, 11, 5, and 1 using pollen data derived from a single long marine core from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 976. This represents the first study which attempts to use pollen-based climatic reconstructions to compare MIS 1 with its analogues, representing a necessary contribution to the debate with a focus on the relationships between vegetation and climate in the southwestern Mediterranean. Three methods of quantitative climate reconstruction have been adopted: two more widely used methods, the modern analogue technique (MAT) and weighted-average partial least-squares (WAPLS) regression, and a more recent machine learning method known as boosted regression trees (BRTs). The reconstructions show consistent changes in temperature and precipitation...