Recent stabilization of agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in China

作者：Yuanyi Gao, Zimeng Li, Songbai Hong, Lijun Yu, Shihua Li, Jing Wei, Jinfeng Chang, Yao Zhang, Wen Zhang, Wenping Yuan, Xuhui Wang · 发表于：National Science Review · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1093/nsr/nwaf040 · 被引用次数：28 · 研究领域：Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact、Environmental Impact and Sustainability、Climate Change Policy and Economics

ABSTRACT Agriculture emerges as a prominent contributor to CH4 and N2O emissions in China. However, estimates of these two non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) remain poorly constrained, hindering a precise understanding of their spatiotemporal dynamics and the development of effective mitigation strategies. Here, we established a consistent estimation framework that integrates emission-factor approach, data-driven models and process-based biogeochemical models, to identify the magnitudes, spatial variations, and long-term trends of agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions in China's mainland from 1980 to 2023. Over the study period, the average total agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions amounted to 722.5 ± 102.3 Tg CO2-eq yr−1, with livestock CH4, cropland CH4, cropland N2O and livestock N2O contributing 41% (297.4 ± 64.3 Tg CO2-eq yr−1), 31% (225.0 ± 69.6 Tg CO2-eq yr−1), 18% (130.6 ± 9.4 Tg CO2-eq yr−1) and 10% (69.4 ± 20.2 Tg CO2-eq yr−1), respectively. Approximately 70% of these emissions were concentrated in the eastern region beyond the Hu Line, with emission hotspots identified in South-central China, East China, and the Sichuan Basin. Our analysis revealed three distinct temporal stages of total emissions during the study period: rapid growth (1980–late 1990s), slow growth (late 1990s–middle 2010s), and a stabilization stage (since the middle 2010s). These stages reflect the evolving trajectory of agriculture in China, from the expansion of agricultural yields, to the transformat...