Time trends of variability in disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus

作者：Ning Li, Alberta Hoi, Shue‐Fen Luo, Yeong-Jian Jan Wu, Worawit Louthrenoo, Vera Golder, Sargunan Sockalingam, Jiacai Cho, Aisha Lateef, Sean O’Neill, Chak Sing Lau, Laniyati Hamijoyo, Mandana Nikpour, Shereen Oon, Yanjie Hao, Madelynn Chan, Zhanguo Li, Sandra Navarra, Leonid Zamora, Yasuhiro Katsumata, Masayoshi Harigai, Fiona Goldblatt, Sang‐Cheol Bae, Zhuoli Zhang, Tsutomu Takeuchi, Jun Kikuchi, Kristine Ng, Nicola Tugnet, Yoshiya Tanaka, Naoaki Ohkubo, Yi‐Hsing Chen, BMDB Basnayake, Annie Law, Sunil Kumar, Cherica Tee, Michael Tee, Jiyoon Choi, Rangi Kandane‐Rathnayake, Eric F. Morand · 发表于：Lupus Science & Medicine · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1136/lupus-2024-001335 · 被引用次数：3 · 研究领域：Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Research、Rheumatoid Arthritis Research and Therapies、Cytomegalovirus and herpesvirus research

OBJECTIVE: Disease activity both between and within patients with SLE is highly variable, yet factors driving this variability remain unclear. This study aimed to identify predictors of variability in SLE disease activity over time. METHODS: , was calculated. The yearly change in [Formula: see text], denoted as [Formula: see text], was regressed onto [Formula: see text] and other potential predictors using random-effects models. Some variables were split into a person-mean component to assess between-patient differences and a demeaned component to assess within-patient variability. RESULTS: Overall, variability in SLE disease activity exhibited stabilisation over time. A significant inverse relationship emerged between a patient's disease activity in a given year and variability in disease activity in the subsequent year: a 1-point increase in person-mean disease activity was associated with a 0.27-point decrease (95% CI -0.29 to -0.26, p<0.001) in subsequent variability. Additionally, a 1-point increase in within-patient disease activity variability was associated with a 0.56-point decrease (95% CI -0.57 to -0.55, p<0.001) in the subsequent year. Furthermore, each 1-point increase in the annual average time-adjusted mean Physician Global Assessment was associated with a 0.08-point decrease (90% CI -0.13 to -0.03, p=0.002) in disease activity variability for the following year. Prednisolone dose and the duration of activity in specific organ systems exhibited negative and pos...