Global burden of colorectal cancer attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2021, with predictions to 2046

作者：Xiaoyue Zhang, Ziqing Xu, Lin Shang, Qian Yang, Hua Ye, Haiyan Liu, Yuanlin Zou, Lu Yin, Zhong Zheng, Meng Li, Peng Wang, Jicun Zhu · 发表于：BMC Cancer · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1186/s12885-025-13643-w · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection、Cancer Risks and Factors、Metabolism, Diabetes, and Cancer

Metabolic risks are significant factors associated with colorectal cancer. This study aimed to assess global, regional and national burden for CRC attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2021 and to predict mortality by 2046. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to quantify deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates of CRC due to metabolic risk factors, disaggregated by sex, age, region, country/territory, and sociodemographic index (SDI). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to analyze temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. Metabolic risks include high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and high body mass index (BMI). Future mortality trends up to 2046 were forecast using age-period-cohort models. Globally, CRC deaths attributable to metabolic risks increased 2.47-fold, rising from 73,443 in 1990 to 181,689 in 2021. The global age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and age-standardized rates of DALYs (ASDRs) of CRC attributable to high FPG and ASDRs attributable to high BMI increased from 1990 to 2021. The ASMRs and ASDRs of males was higher than that of females, with increasing trends. Central Europe had the highest ASMRs and ASDRs of CRC attributable to metabolic risks in 2021. Most regions and countries showed increasing trends in ASMR and ASDR for CRC due to metabolic risks, with Andean Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Cabo Verde increasing the most. High-SDI regions had the largest burden of CRC attri...