Evaluating climate-induced changes in the suitable distribution and ecological niche of Prunus mira Koehne using ensemble modeling and high-performance liquid chromatography analysis

作者：Shuning Zhang, Minglong Gao, Junxing Chen, Ao Dun, Lin Wang, Wuyun Tana, Yue Bai, Wenquan Bao · 发表于：Ecological Informatics · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103071 · 被引用次数：4 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Plant Pathogens and Resistance、Genetic diversity and population structure

Prunus mira Koehne, is an economically and ecologically important woody oilseed tree species in China, but currently, it is facing great challenges from climate change and human activities, impacting its distribution area and, consequently, its growth and seed quality. Therefore, it is important to investigate the spatial distribution of P. mira and changes in seed kernel oil quality with respect to climate change for the conservation and utilization of this species. This study explored the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution, ecological niches, and seed oil quality of P. mira . Based on the Biomod2 platform and ensemble modeling, 10 species distribution model groups were incorporated to simulate potential distribution areas. High-performance liquid chromatography was used to analyze the oil composition of P. mira seeds. The results revealed that the current potential distribution area in China primarily comprises high-altitude regions of the Tibetan and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateaus. Future climate projections suggest limited migration of suitable areas for P. mira , which initially decrease before experiencing an increase in the distribution area. Furthermore, variations in P. mira seed oil characteristics were aligned with climate-induced changes, with seeds from more habitable regions producing improved oil qualities. • Sustainable production of Prunus mira may be threatened by climate change. • Prunus mira distribution under different periods was predi...