Global and China trends and forecasts of disease burden for female lung Cancer from 1990 to 2021: a study based on the global burden of disease 2021 database

作者：B. Li, Yuyan Wu, Yanhong Zhang, Chengyun Hu, Xue Li, Shanshan Luo, Chenyu Sun, Iyad Yousef, Yefei Wang, Chaoliang Tang · 发表于：Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1007/s00432-025-06084-2 · 被引用次数：9 · 研究领域：Global Cancer Incidence and Screening、Endometrial and Cervical Cancer Treatments、Lung Cancer Treatments and Mutations

BACKGROUND: In recent years, due to various risk factors, the incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of female lung cancer have been increasing in both China and globally. This has become a significant public health challenge worldwide. Lung cancer not only poses a severe threat to women's health but also places a heavy burden on families and society. OBJECTIVE: To conduct an in-depth analysis of the trends in disease burden for female lung cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast the next 15 years (2022-2037). The aim is to provide a reliable theoretical basis and reference value for clinical research and practice in female lung cancer and offer guidance for resource allocation and policy-making in society. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of lung cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021. These metrics were stratified by gender (BOTH, MALE, FEMALE), and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated for each metric over this period. The JOINPOINT regression model was used to analyze the trends in female lung cancer in China and globally from 1990 to 2021. The ARIMA model was applied to forecast the changes in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASDR) for the next fifteen years (2022-2037) for female lung cancer in China and globally. RESULTS: The results indicate a...