Elderly vulnerability to temperature-related mortality risks in China

作者：Xin Yao, Ying Qu, Ashok Mishra, Michael Mann, Liqiang Zhang, Liqiang Zhang, Chen Bai, Mengting Li, Jintai Lin, Jing Wei, Qiwei Yu, Ruiqiang Ding, Yuebin Wang, Lei Zhang, Lei Zhang, Jing Yang, Junpei Tao, Suhong Liu, Qihao Wang · 发表于：Science Advances · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1126/sciadv.ado5499 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Air Quality and Health Impacts、Thermoregulation and physiological responses

The elderly face elevated mortality risk due to rising temperature. Previous assessments of temperature-related mortality, however, lack a comprehensive analysis of distinct impacts of temperature change across different timescales and characteristics. Using a longitudinal survey of 27,233 elderly Chinese citizens from 2005 to 2018, we establish connections between rising temperatures, temperature variability, and extreme heat with increased mortality risk, assessed through four annual metrics that combine temperature and humidity. The intensity and prolonged duration of extreme heat are found to have the greatest impact on mortality risk. Furthermore, by identifying heterogeneous impacts based on location, sex, age, obesity, income, and diet, we reveal the pathways through which temperature metrics are likely to influence mortality risk. Our study highlights the compound effects of rising temperatures for elderly populations, and it could be expanded to other countries and regions experiencing similar challenges due to an aging population experiencing warming conditions.