Modelling the seasonal dynamics of Aedes albopictus populations using a spatio-temporal stacked machine learning model

作者：Daniele Da Re, Giovanni Marini, Carmelo Bonannella, Fabrizio Laurini, Mattia Manica, Nikoleta Anicic, Alessandro Albieri, Paola Angelini, Daniele Arnoldi, Federica Bertola, Beniamino Caputo, Claudio De Liberato, Alessandra della Torre, Eleonora Flacio, Alessandra Franceschini, Francesco Gradoni, Përparim Kadriaj, Valeria Lencioni, Irene Del Lesto, Francesco La Russa, Riccardo Paolo Lia, Fabrizio Montarsi, Domenico Otranto, Grégory L’Ambert, Annapaola Rizzoli, Pasquale Rombolà, Federico Romiti, Gionata Stancher, Alessandra Torina, Enkelejda Velo, Chiara Virgillito, Fabiana Zandonai, Roberto Rosà · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2025 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-025-87554-y · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Viral Infections and Vectors

Various modelling techniques are available to understand the temporal and spatial variations of the phenology of species. Scientists often rely on correlative models, which establish a statistical relationship between a response variable (such as species abundance or presence-absence) and a set of predominantly abiotic covariates. The choice of the modeling approach, i.e., the algorithm, is itself a significant source of variability, as different algorithms applied to the same dataset can yield disparate outcomes. This inter-model variability has led to the adoption of ensemble modelling techniques, among which stacked generalisation, which has recently demonstrated its capacity to produce robust results. Stacked ensemble modelling incorporates predictions from multiple base learners or models as inputs for a meta-learner. The meta-learner, in turn, assimilates these predictions and generates a final prediction by combining the information from all the base learners. In our study, we utilized a recently published dataset documenting egg abundance observations of Aedes albopictus collected using ovitraps. and a set of environmental predictors to forecast the weekly median number of mosquito eggs using a stacked machine learning model. This approach enabled us to (i) unearth the seasonal egg-laying dynamics of Ae. albopictus for 12 years; (ii) generate spatio-temporal explicit forecasts of mosquito egg abundance in regions not covered by conventional monitoring initiatives. Our...